Predicted 3-yr CAGR (median)
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Click an area for details · zoom in for property points
Model validation metrics
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How this works
What you're looking at
A predicted 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for every London neighbourhood (LSOA — about 1,500 residents each). The map ranks ~4,600 areas; click one to see its details.
Read the prediction as directional, not exact
A predicted "5% CAGR" means this area will probably grow faster than one predicted 3% and slower than one predicted 7%. The number is calibrated, but typical absolute error is around ±3 percentage points per year — so always read the 80% interval (e.g. "+1% to +9%") alongside the headline.
The model is a ranking tool. Spearman correlation across areas is 0.56 on the 2019–2022 held-out test — strong rankings, modest absolute precision.
How the model is built
- Truth data: 30 years of HM Land Registry sales (~3.7M Greater London transactions) joined to Energy Performance Certificate data for floor area & rating.
- Features (~46): hedonic price index, repeat-sales index (same property resold), spatial neighbour growth, transport distances, ONS Census 2021, IMD deprivation, postcode-district rents (VOA), Bank of England rate, mortgage approvals, CPI inflation & real interest rate.
- Model: LightGBM gradient boosting trained as quantile regression — predicts p10/p50/p90 simultaneously so the uncertainty interval is the model's own honest output, not a post-hoc add-on.
- Validation: walk-forward cross-validation through 2018, then held-out 2019–2022 test set + per-borough / per-year / per-price-quartile slice thresholds. Every commit is rejected if any slice regresses.
Honest caveats
- This is a neighbourhood ranking, not a per-property forecast. Individual properties are 5–10× noisier than area averages.
- The "typical home £" shown is the local 3-year median sale price — not a valuation of any specific home.
- The forecast 3-year price range bakes in the model's calibrated uncertainty. The wider the range, the less confident the model.
- This is not financial or property advice. Indicative output only. Free, public-data-only, built as a personal project.